Kamala Harris is topping some new polls of Democratic White House contenders, a sign the former vice president and 2024 presidential nominee has staying power despite her defeat to President Trump.
It’s a reality that flies in the face of some of the talk after that race, in which Democrats talked about turning the page, with some calling for the party to move on from a stale playbook and to look for new leaders.
It all underscores the paradox Democrats are facing in their rebuilding efforts: Which parts of their messaging and leadership do they want to overhaul, and what are they willing to leave in place.
Some Democrats say Harris more than deserves a spot as one of the leading contenders to be the next standard-bearer. After all, she nearly won an election after spending just 100 days at the top of the ticket, following then-President Biden’s decision to drop out of the campaign.
“She has high name recognition. She has stayed in the news. And a lot of voters recognize that she was right about much of what she campaigned on in 2024,” Democratic strategist Basil Smikle said.
“I think part of this at least reflects that Democrats are giving her the benefit of the doubt on the 2024 and saying she ran a good campaign and at the very least deserves another go,” another strategist said of the poll numbers.
A poll from Focaldata released last week is the most recent 2028 Democratic poll. It found that 39 percent of registered voters said they would support Harris if she ran. The poll said 21 percent of those surveyed would support California Gov. Gavin Newsom, followed by 10 percent for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
The survey also showed that 82 percent of voters who backed Harris in 2024 held a favorable opinion of her, while 8 percent held an unfavorable view. A Tavern Research/Searchlight Institute survey out last month also showed that 90 percent of Democratic likely voters had a favorable view of the former vice president.
Those polls follow other surveys in recent months that showed Harris ahead of would-be 2028 rivals, with the exception of one poll — by Echelon Insights — which shows Newsom ahead of Harris 27 percent to 21 percent, respectively.
Harris has not said publicly if she’s considering a White House run. Privately, she has told advisers and allies that she is keeping her options open.
“I can tell just by talking to her that she’s not done with public service,” one longtime ally said, adding that it’s one of the reasons she decided against running for governor of California this year.
The former vice president is currently on a months-long book tour across the country — including upcoming stops in the Rust Belt states she lost in 2024 — before packed crowds in theaters and auditoriums. And earlier this month, she launched a highly publicized rebranding of her social media accounts.
Still, while her allies maintain she would perform well in a new presidential race that is entirely her own to run, other Democrats — including some of her former aides — worry that putting her up for a second time won’t produce different results.
“Being forced into a 107-day campaign in those circumstances was unfair, but I do not expect Democratic Party voters desperate for a win in 2028 will choose to gamble with a candidate who just lost every swing state,” said one former aide to Harris. “She deserves another chapter, but I hope it’s not as a candidate for president.”
Garry South, a Democratic consultant based in California who worked for Newsom on one of his campaigns, put it this way: “The Democratic Party doesn’t renominate losers.”
“The last time we did it was exactly 70 years ago with Adlai Stevenson,” South said. “He proceeded to lose again — even worse.”
Some Democratic fundraisers and donors are also down on the prospects of another Harris run.
Democratic megadonor John Morgan, the personal injury lawyer, said Harris “will be pulverized from all sides” if that were to happen.
“Find one politician outside of California where she is their first choice,” Morgan said.
Morgan said the polls are not correct.
“It’s like asking people, ‘Name your favorite race horse,’” he said. “They may know three. 90 percent would say ‘Secretariat,’ even though he is dead. She is as dead as Secretariat.”
At the same time, Harris does have the highest name recognition of any of the would-be candidates, including Newsom, who has dominated recent news cycles by taking on Trump.
“People don’t like to be told they’re wrong,” said Susan Del Percio, the veteran Republican strategist who does not support Trump, adding that the polling is reflective of their votes in the 2024 race.
At the same time, Del Percio said the surveys are also underscoring the fact that Democrats still don’t have a leader or a platform.
“As much as the Republicans are blowing it right now, the Democrats don’t have a damn thing going on. Where are the Democrats? What are they standing for? Those numbers are about how there’s nothing happening in the party right now.”
“They can’t turn the page because they haven’t written the book,” Del Percio added. “Instead of writing the editorial, they’re writing strongly worded letters to the editor.”
A number of Democrats, rattled after losing two of the last three presidential elections to Trump, say they are ready for change.
“The party is well overdue for a healthy, honest primary and I mean that in the most democratic sense, without party leaders putting their thumbs on the scales,” said Nomiki Konst, a Democratic activist who recently supported Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race.
While Konst said the outcome of the 2024 presidential election boiled down to a “strategic mistake … not a candidate mistake,” she said the Democratic Party has a new opportunity to show what it’s about.
Democrats, she said, “need to understand that the country is seeking leadership and that they have an opportunity to advertise that they’re a diverse party with lots of ideas.”
And as Del Percio predicted, “No matter what, the Democrats won’t look backwards for their nominee. They did that with Joe Biden and they’re not doing that again.”
