The United States is on track to record the largest one-year decline in murders in its history, according to an analysis by crime statistics expert Jeff Asher. The drop is part of a broader decrease in violent crime following a surge during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mass killings in the U.S. also declined in 2025, reaching their lowest level since 2006.
The Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles data from 570 law enforcement agencies, shows murders are down nearly 20% this year compared with the same period in 2024.
The database, which Asher used for his analysis, excludes manslaughter, self-defense, negligence and accidental killings, according to its online glossary. Its statistics are currently available through October.
The FBI is not expected to release official 2025 violent crime data until next year, though estimates from the Real-Time Crime Index have historically tracked closely with federal figures.
Other major crime categories measured by the index also declined nationwide and across jurisdictions of all population sizes, including motor vehicle thefts, down 23.2%, aggravated assaults, down 7.5%, and robberies, down 18.3%, Axios reported.
Several major U.S. cities reported sharp declines in murders this year compared with 2024, according to the index.
New York City and Memphis each recorded declines of nearly 20%, while Chicago saw murders fall by almost 28%. New Orleans reported a decrease of 7.5%, and Los Angeles County recorded a nearly 19% drop.
A small number of jurisdictions saw increases. Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, each reported a 600% rise in murders, the index said, noted Axios, citing the data.
President Trump has made combating violent crime a priority in his second term, though there is no clear evidence tying his policies to the decline. Crime rates have been falling since 2021, according to data from the Real-Time Crime Index and the FBI.
But that said, the drop this year is historic. Also, Trump has deployed National Guard troops to cities around the country, saying additional support is needed to assist law enforcement in addressing crime.
Washington, D.C. — which Trump has said became safer because of his efforts — recorded a nearly 28% decline in murders this year.
Trump has sent, or threatened to send, National Guard troops to cities he has described as “hellholes,” citing what he says is escalating crime. Recent data show homicides are falling sharply in several of those cities, including Washington, D.C., Memphis, Chicago and Portland, Oregon.
Reports from 67 law enforcement agencies show homicides declined 19% nationwide in the first nine months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, according to statistics compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association, Axios noted in a separate report.
An Axios analysis of the Major Cities Chiefs Association data found that Buffalo, New York; Denver; Orlando, Florida; and Seattle each recorded declines of more than 40% in homicides during that period.
Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago and Las Vegas were among the cities that saw homicide drops of 25% or more. Portland — a city Trump has frequently criticized as “like living in hell” — reported a 39% decrease in homicides, according to the Axios analysis.
Memphis, where the National Guard was deployed in mid-September, recorded a 19% decline in homicides during the first nine months of the year.
“Chicago is a hellhole right now. Baltimore is a hellhole right now,” Trump said in September. “We have the right to [call in the National Guard] because I have an obligation to protect this country.”
Chicago recorded the largest decline in overall violent crime among major U.S. cities during the first nine months of 2025, with offenses down 22.1%, according to an Axios review.
The city of about 2.6 million residents reported the highest number of homicides in the nation last year, with 573 killings, though its homicide rate did not rank among the top 20 U.S. cities with populations of at least 100,000, according to an Axios analysis of FBI data.
Baltimore recorded the fifth-largest decrease in violent crime during the same period, with incidents down 19.7%, Axios said.
